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Role of Diuretics in Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial: A Post Hoc Analysis.
Bansal, S, Boucher, R, Shen, J, Wei, G, Chertow, GM, Whelton, PK, Cushman, WC, Cheung, AK, Beddhu, S, ,
Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN. 2024
Abstract
BACKGROUND In a post hoc analysis, we examined whether postrandomization diuretics use can explain and/or mediate the beneficial effects of intensive systolic BP lowering on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT). METHODS SPRINT was a randomized, controlled trial of 9361 participants comparing the effects of intensive (systolic BP target <120 mm Hg) versus standard (systolic BP target <140 mm Hg) BP control on a primary composite cardiovascular end point in participants aged 50 years or older with systolic BP of 130-180 mm Hg. In time-varying multivariable Cox analyses, we assessed hazard ratios (HRs) of cardiovascular end points and all-cause mortality in participants on thiazide type, loop and/or potassium (K) sparing, or no diuretics. We also conducted mediation analysis to formally assess the role of diuretics in the effects of intensive systolic BP lowering. RESULTS At baseline, diuretics were prescribed in 46% and 48% of participants in standard and intensive systolic BP-lowering groups, respectively, and in 46% and 74% in the corresponding groups during the trial. The lower risk of cardiovascular end points in the intensive group (HR, 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 0.89) persisted after adjustment for postrandomization time-varying diuretics use (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.89). Across the entire study population, time-varying diuretics use was not associated with cardiovascular end points (compared with no diuretics, HR for thiazide type, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.10, and loop/K sparing, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.73). However, thiazide-type diuretics were associated with lower risk of cardiovascular end points in the intensive (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.85) but not in the standard (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.39) group. In mediation analysis, HRs for total effect, direct effect (not mediated through diuretics use), and indirect effect (mediated through diuretics) of the intervention on cardiovascular end points were 0.66 (95% CI, 0.54 to 0.79), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.54 to 0.81), and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.88 to 1.10), respectively. The results were largely similar for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS The favorable effects of intensive systolic BP lowering on cardiovascular end points and all-cause mortality in SPRINT were independent of and not mediated by time-varying diuretics use. However, thiazide-type diuretics use associated with benefit if intensive systolic BP lowering was targeted.
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Dapagliflozin and Blood Pressure in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease and Albuminuria.
Heerspink, HJ, Provenzano, M, Vart, P, Jongs, N, Correa-Rotter, R, Rossing, P, Mark, PB, Pecoits-Filho, R, McMurray, JJ, Langkilde, AM, et al
American heart journal. 2024;:125-135
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors decrease blood pressure in patients with type 2 diabetes, but the consistency and magnitude of blood pressure lowering with dapagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown. We conducted a prespecified analysis of the DAPA-CKD trial to investigate the effect of dapagliflozin on systolic blood pressure (SBP) in patients with CKD, with and without type 2 diabetes. METHODS A total of 4304 adults with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 25-75 mL/min/1.73m2 and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) 200-5000 mg/g were randomized to either dapagliflozin 10 mg or placebo once daily; median follow-up was 2.4 years. The primary endpoint was a composite of sustained ≥50% eGFR decline, end-stage kidney disease, or death from a kidney or cardiovascular cause. Change in SBP was a prespecified outcome. RESULTS Baseline mean (SD) SBP was 137.1 mmHg (17.4). By Week 2, dapagliflozin compared to placebo reduced SBP by 3.6 mmHg (95% CI 2.8-4.4 mmHg), an effect maintained over the duration of the trial (2.9 mmHg, 2.3-3.6 mmHg). Time-averaged reductions in SBP were 3.2 mmHg (2.5-4.0 mmHg) in patients with diabetes and 2.3 mmHg (1.2-3.4 mmHg) in patients without diabetes. The time-averaged effect of dapagliflozin on diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was 1.0 mmHg (0.6-1.4 mmHg); 0.8 mmHg (0.4-1.3 mmHg) in patients with diabetes and 1.4 mmHg (0.7-2.1 mmHg) in patients without diabetes. Benefits of dapagliflozin on the primary composite and secondary endpoints were evident across the spectrum of baseline SBP and DBP. CONCLUSION In patients with CKD and albuminuria, randomization to dapagliflozin was associated with modest reductions in systolic and diastolic BP.
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Bias and Accuracy of Glomerular Filtration Rate Estimating Equations in the US: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Yan, AF, Williams, MY, Shi, Z, Oyekan, R, Yoon, C, Bowen, R, Chertow, GM
JAMA network open. 2024;(3):e241127
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IMPORTANCE There is increasing concern that continued use of a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating equation adjusted for a single racial group could exacerbate chronic kidney disease-related disparities and inequalities. OBJECTIVE To assess the performance of GFR estimating equations across varied patient populations. DATA SOURCES PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, and Scopus databases were systematically searched from January 2012 to February 2023. STUDY SELECTION Inclusion criteria were studies that compared measured GFR with estimated GFR in adults using established reference standards and methods. A total of 6663 studies were initially identified for screening and review. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, 2 authors independently extracted data on studies that examined the bias and accuracy of GFR estimating equations. For each outcome, a random-effects model was used to calculate pooled estimates. Data analysis was conducted from March to December 2023. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcomes were bias and accuracy of estimated GFRs in Black vs non-Black patients, as well as in individuals with chronic conditions. Bias was defined as the median difference between the measured GFR and the estimated GFR. Accuracy was assessed with P30 (the proportion of persons in a data set whose estimated GFR values were within 30% of measured GFR values) and measures of heterogeneity. RESULTS A total of 12 studies with a combined 44 721 patients were included. Significant heterogeneity was found in the bias of various GFR estimation equations. Race-corrected equations and creatinine-based equations tended to overestimate GFR in Black populations and showed mixed results in non-Black populations. For creatinine-based equations, the mean bias in subgroup analysis was 2.1 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI, -0.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 to 4.4 mL/min/1.73 m2) in Black persons and 1.3 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI, 0.0 mL/min/1.73 m2 to 2.5 mL/min/1.73 m2) in non-Black persons. Equations using only cystatin C had small biases. Regarding accuracy, heterogeneity was high in both groups. The overall P30 was 84.5% in Black persons and 87.8% in non-Black persons. Creatinine-based equations were more accurate in non-Black persons than in Black persons. For creatinine-cystatin C equations, the P30 was higher in non-Black persons. There was no significant P30 difference in cystatin C-only equations between the 2 groups. In patients with chronic conditions, P30 values were generally less than 85%, and the biases varied widely. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This systematic review and meta-analysis of GFR estimating equations suggests that there is bias in race-based GFR estimating equations, which exacerbates kidney disease disparities. Development of a GFR equation independent of race is a crucial starting point, but not the sole solution. Addressing the disproportionate burden of kidney failure on Black individuals in the US requires an enduring, multifaceted approach that should include improving diagnostics, tackling social determinants of health, confronting systemic racism, and using effective disease prevention and management strategies.
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Effects of RBT-1 on preconditioning response biomarkers in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft or heart valve surgery: a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial.
Lamy, A, Chertow, GM, Jessen, M, Collar, A, Brown, CD, Mack, CA, Marzouk, M, Scavo, V, Washburn, TB, Savage, D, et al
EClinicalMedicine. 2024;:102364
Abstract
BACKGROUND RBT-1 is a combination drug of stannic protoporfin (SnPP) and iron sucrose (FeS) that elicits a preconditioning response through activation of antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and iron-scavenging pathways, as measured by heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and ferritin, respectively. Our primary aim was to determine whether RBT-1 administered before surgery would safely and effectively elicit a preconditioning response in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. METHODS This phase 2, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, adaptive trial, conducted in 19 centres across the USA, Canada, and Australia, enrolled patients scheduled to undergo non-emergent coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and/or heart valve surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Patients were randomised (1:1:1) to receive either a single intravenous infusion of high-dose RBT-1 (90 mg SnPP/240 mg FeS), low-dose RBT-1 (45 mg SnPP/240 mg FeS), or placebo within 24-48 h before surgery. The primary outcome was a preoperative preconditioning response, measured by a composite of plasma HO-1, IL-10, and ferritin. Safety was assessed by adverse events and laboratory parameters. Prespecified adaptive criteria permitted early stopping and enrichment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04564833. FINDINGS Between Aug 4, 2021, and Nov 9, 2022, of 135 patients who were enrolled and randomly allocated to a study group (46 high-dose, 45 low-dose, 44 placebo), 132 (98%) were included in the primary analysis (46 high-dose, 42 low-dose, 44 placebo). At interim, the trial proceeded to full enrollment without enrichment. RBT-1 led to a greater preconditioning response than did placebo at high-dose (geometric least squares mean [GLSM] ratio, 3.58; 95% CI, 2.91-4.41; p < 0.0001) and low-dose (GLSM ratio, 2.62; 95% CI, 2.11-3.24; p < 0.0001). RBT-1 was generally well tolerated by patients. The primary drug-related adverse event was dose-dependent photosensitivity, observed in 12 (26%) of 46 patients treated with high-dose RBT-1 and in six (13%) of 45 patients treated with low-dose RBT-1 (safety population). INTERPRETATION RBT-1 demonstrated a statistically significant cytoprotective preconditioning response and a manageable safety profile. Further research is needed. A phase 3 trial is planned. FUNDING Renibus Therapeutics, Inc.
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Ambient heat exposure and kidney function in patients with chronic kidney disease: a post-hoc analysis of the DAPA-CKD trial.
Zhang, Z, Heerspink, HJL, Chertow, GM, Correa-Rotter, R, Gasparrini, A, Jongs, N, Langkilde, AM, McMurray, JJV, Mistry, MN, Rossing, P, et al
The Lancet. Planetary health. 2024;(4):e225-e233
Abstract
BACKGROUND Higher temperatures are associated with higher rates of hospital admissions for nephrolithiasis and acute kidney injury. Occupational heat stress is also a risk factor for kidney dysfunction in resource-poor settings. It is unclear whether ambient heat exposure is associated with loss of kidney function in patients with established chronic kidney disease. We assessed the association between heat index and change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in participants from the DAPA-CKD trial in a post-hoc analysis. METHODS DAPA-CKD was a randomised controlled trial of oral dapagliflozin 10 mg once daily or placebo that enrolled participants aged 18 years or older, with or without type 2 diabetes, with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 200-5000 mg/g, and an eGFR of 25-75 mL/min per 1·73 m2. In this post-hoc analysis, we explored the association between time-varying daily centre-level heat index (ERA5 dataset) and individual-level change in eGFR in trial participants using linear mixed effect models and case-time series. The DAPA-CKD trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03036150. FINDINGS Climate and eGFR data were available for 4017 (93·3%) of 4304 participants in 21 countries (mean age: 61·9 years; mean eGFR: 43·3 mL per 1·73 m2; median 28 months follow-up). Across centres, a heat index of more than 30°C occurred on a median of 0·6% of days. In adjusted linear mixed effect models, within each 120-day window, each 30 days' heat index of more than 30°C was associated with a -0·6% (95% CI -0·9% to -0·3%) change in eGFR. Similar estimates were obtained using case-time series. Additional analyses over longer time-windows showed associations consistent with haemodynamic or seasonal variability, or both, but overall estimates corresponded to an additional 3·7 mL per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 0·1 to 7·0) loss of eGFR per year in a patient with an eGFR of 45 mL per 1·73 m2 located in a very hot versus a temperate environment. INTERPRETATION Higher ambient heat exposure is associated with more rapid eGFR decline in those with established chronic kidney disease. Efforts to mitigate heat exposure should be tested as part of strategies to attenuate chronic kidney disease progression. FUNDING None.
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Efficacy and Safety of Dapagliflozin in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease Across the Spectrum of Frailty.
Vart, P, Butt, JH, Jongs, N, Schechter, M, Chertow, GM, Wheeler, DC, Pecoits-Filho, R, Langkilde, AM, Correa-Rotter, R, Rossing, P, et al
The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences. 2024;(2)
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BACKGROUND A sizeable proportion of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are reported to be frail. Here we examined the safety and efficacy of dapagliflozin in patients with CKD by frailty level. METHODS Adults with CKD, with/without type 2 diabetes, with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 25-75 mL/min/1.73 m2, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio 200-5 000 mg/g were randomized to dapagliflozin (10 mg/day) or placebo. The primary endpoint was a composite of sustained ≥50% eGFR decline, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), or death from kidney or cardiovascular (CV) causes. RESULTS Frailty index (FI), assessed by Rockwood cumulative deficit approach, was calculable in 4 303/4 304 (99.9%) patients: 1 162 (27.0%) in not-to-mildly frail (FI ≤0.210), 1 642 (38.2%) in moderately frail (FI 0.211-0.310), and 1 499 (34.8%) in severely frail categories (FI >0.311). Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite endpoint across all FI categories (hazard ratios [95% confidence interval {CI}]: 0.50 [0.33-0.76], 0.62 [0.45-0.85], and 0.64 [0.49--0.83], respectively; p-interaction = 0.67). Results were similar for secondary outcomes including kidney composite outcome (sustained ≥50% eGFR decline, ESKD or death from kidney cause; p-interaction = 0.44), CV endpoint (heart failure hospitalization or CV death; p-interaction = 0.63), and all-cause mortality (p-interaction p = .42). Results were consistent when using FI as a continuous variable. Occurrence of serious adverse events was numerically lower in patients receiving dapagliflozin versus placebo in all FI categories (16.9% vs 20.1%, 26.3% vs 30.7%, and 42.9% vs 47.8%, in not-to-mildly, moderately, and severely frail categories, respectively). CONCLUSIONS The relative benefit of dapagliflozin for all outcomes was consistent across all frailty categories, with no difference in associated safety.
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Population-Wide Screening for Chronic Kidney Disease : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
Cusick, MM, Tisdale, RL, Chertow, GM, Owens, DK, Goldhaber-Fiebert, JD
Annals of internal medicine. 2023;(6):788-797
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have the potential to alter the natural history of chronic kidney disease (CKD), and they should be included in cost-effectiveness analyses of screening for CKD. OBJECTIVE To determine the cost-effectiveness of adding population-wide screening for CKD. DESIGN Markov cohort model. DATA SOURCES NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data, cohort studies, and randomized clinical trials, including the DAPA-CKD (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease) trial. TARGET POPULATION Adults. TIME HORIZON Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE Health care sector. INTERVENTION Screening for albuminuria with and without adding SGLT2 inhibitors to the current standard of care for CKD. OUTCOME MEASURES Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), all discounted at 3% annually. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS One-time CKD screening at age 55 years had an ICER of $86 300 per QALY gained by increasing costs from $249 800 to $259 000 and increasing QALYs from 12.61 to 12.72; this was accompanied by a decrease in the incidence of kidney failure requiring dialysis or kidney transplant of 0.29 percentage points and an increase in life expectancy from 17.29 to 17.45 years. Other options were also cost-effective. During ages 35 to 75 years, screening once prevented dialysis or transplant in 398 000 people and screening every 10 years until age 75 years cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS When SGLT2 inhibitors were 30% less effective, screening every 10 years during ages 35 to 75 years cost between $145 400 and $182 600 per QALY gained, and price reductions would be required for screening to be cost-effective. LIMITATION The efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors was derived from a single randomized controlled trial. CONCLUSION Screening adults for albuminuria to identify CKD could be cost-effective in the United States. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Veterans Affairs Office of Academic Affiliations, and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.
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Parathyroidectomy and Cinacalcet Use in Medicare-Insured Kidney Transplant Recipients.
Wang, AX, Liu, S, Montez-Rath, ME, Chertow, GM, Lenihan, CR
American journal of kidney diseases : the official journal of the National Kidney Foundation. 2023;(3):270-280.e1
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RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE Posttransplant hyperparathyroidism is common, and treatment practices are poorly characterized. The goal of this study was to examine the incidence, associations, and outcomes of posttransplant parathyroidectomy and calcimimetic use in a cohort of Medicare-insured US kidney transplant recipients. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS We used the US Renal Data System to extract demographic, clinical, and prescription data from Medicare Parts A, B, and D-insured patients who received their first kidney transplant in 2007-2013. We excluded patients with pretransplant parathyroidectomy. PREDICTORS Calendar year of transplantation and pretransplant patient characteristics. OUTCOME (1) Incidence of and secular trends in parathyroidectomy and cinacalcet use in the 3 years after transplant; (2) 90-day outcomes after posttransplant parathyroidectomy and cinacalcet initiation. ANALYTICAL APPROACH Temporal trends and pretransplant correlates of parathyroidectomy and cinacalcet use were assessed using proportional hazards models and multivariable Poisson regression, respectively. RESULTS The inclusion criteria were met by 30,127 patients, of whom 10,707 used cinacalcet before transplant, 551 underwent posttransplant parathyroidectomy, and 5,413 filled≥1 prescription for cinacalcet. The rate of posttransplant parathyroidectomy was stable over time. By contrast, cinacalcet use increased during the period studied. Long dialysis vintage and pretransplant cinacalcet use were strongly associated with posttransplant parathyroidectomy and cinacalcet use. Roughly 1 in 4 patients were hospitalized within 90 days of posttransplant parathyroidectomy, with hypocalcemia-related diagnoses being the most common complication. Parathyroidectomy (vs cinacalcet initiation) was not associated with an increase in acute kidney injury. LIMITATIONS We lacked access to laboratory data to help assess the severity of secondary/tertiary hyperparathyroidism. The cohort was limited to Medicare beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS Almost one-fifth of our study cohort was treated with parathyroidectomy and/or cinacalcet. Further studies are needed to establish the optimal treatment for posttransplant hyperparathyroidism.
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Effects of Dapagliflozin in Chronic Kidney Disease Across the Spectrum of Age and by Sex.
Yu, MK, Vart, P, Jongs, N, Correa-Rotter, R, Rossing, P, McMurray, JJV, Hou, FF, Douthat, W, Khullar, D, Langkilde, AM, et al
Journal of general internal medicine. 2023
Abstract
BACKGROUND The sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitor dapagliflozin reduces the risk of progressive kidney disease and cardiovascular events in patients with chronic kidney disease, with and without type 2 diabetes. Whether its effects are uniform across the spectrum of age and among men and women is unknown. OBJECTIVE We performed a pre-specified analysis in DAPA-CKD to evaluate efficacy and safety of dapagliflozin according to baseline age and sex. DESIGN Prospective randomized placebo-controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS A total of 4304 adults with chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 25-75 mL/min/1.73 m2; urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio 200-5000 mg/g) with and without type 2 diabetes. INTERVENTION Dapagliflozin 10 mg versus placebo once daily. MAIN MEASURES Primary endpoint was a composite of ≥ 50% sustained eGFR decline, end-stage kidney disease, and kidney or cardiovascular death. Secondary endpoints included kidney composite endpoint (same as primary composite endpoint but without cardiovascular death), cardiovascular composite endpoint (hospitalized heart failure or cardiovascular death), and all-cause mortality. KEY RESULTS Median follow-up was 2.4 years. Absolute risks of cardiovascular composite endpoint and all-cause mortality were higher in older patients. Absolute risk of kidney composite endpoint was highest in patients < 50 years (10.7 and 6.2 per 100 patient-years in the placebo and dapagliflozin groups, respectively) and lowest in patients ≥ 80 years (3.0 and 1.2 per 100 patient-years in the placebo and dapagliflozin groups, respectively). There was no evidence of heterogeneity of the effects of dapagliflozin on the primary or secondary endpoints based on age or sex. Neither age nor sex modified the effects of dapagliflozin on total or chronic eGFR slope. CONCLUSIONS Dapagliflozin reduced the risks of mortality, cardiovascular events, and CKD progression in older patients, including in septuagenarians and octogenarians who comprised 25% of participants. Ageism and/or therapeutic nihilism should not discourage the use of dapagliflozin in older women and men who are likely to experience considerable benefit. TRIAL REGISTRY clinicaltrials.gov NIH TRIAL REGISTRY NUMBER NCT03036150.
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Extrapolated longer-term effects of the DAPA-CKD trial: a modelling analysis.
McEwan, P, Boyce, R, Sanchez, JJG, Sjöström, CD, Stefansson, B, Nolan, S, Correa-Rotter, R, Rossing, P, Chertow, GM, McMurray, JJV, et al
Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association. 2023;(5):1260-1270
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BACKGROUND The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (DAPA-CKD) trial assessed dapagliflozin versus placebo, in addition to standard therapy, in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and albuminuria, and was terminated prematurely due to overwhelming efficacy. The study objective was to model the long-term clinical outcomes of DAPA-CKD beyond the trial follow-up. METHODS A Markov model extrapolated event incidence per 1000 patients and CKD progression rates for patients receiving dapagliflozin or placebo over a 10-year time horizon. We derived treatment-specific CKD stage transition matrices using DAPA-CKD trial data. We extrapolated relevant efficacy endpoints using parametric survival equations for all-cause mortality and generalized estimating equations for recurrent events. RESULTS When extrapolated over a 10-year period, patients randomized to dapagliflozin spent more time in CKD stages 1-3 and less in stages 4-5 than placebo [0.65 (95% CrI 0.41, 0.90) and -0.23 (95% CrI -0.45, 0.00) years per patient, respectively]. Dapagliflozin prevented an estimated 83 deaths and 51 patients initiating kidney replacement therapy per 1000 patients over 10 years. Predicted rates of hospitalized heart failure and abrupt declines in kidney function were reduced (19 and 39 estimated events per 1000 patients, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Adding dapagliflozin to standard therapeutic management of CKD is expected to have long-term cardiorenal benefit beyond what has been demonstrated in the DAPA-CKD trial, with patients predicted to live longer with fewer complications.